USMLE-o-gram: Mathematics of Match

Article by :Waqas Nawaz MD

HOW STEP SCORES AFFECT NUMBER OF INTERVIEW CALLS AND MATCHING PROBABILITY-WITH OTHER FACTORS KEPT CONSISTENT; ANALYSIS

1.     It is based on the results and data of last 2 years and it is an estimate ;not hard and fast.

2.     All other factors like USCE,  RESEARCH AND GRAD YEAR are considered constant. Making change in them can change the outcome.

3.     Step 3 score; until very high >235 has effect equal to done or not done.

4.     The number of interviews are those which are “Genuine” not contact based.

5.     Very clear that how the CS attempt can make Green zone a Red zone

6.     Also shows that how toppings can make a RED zone a Yellow zone

7.     Last row shows that with step1, 2<225 ; all 3 toppings needed to make it a yellow zone

8.     A general impression from this analysis is that “ONE interview call increases the match probability by6-8 % “

9.     All these interviews are those which are not contact based. Otherwise strong contacts can bring even a person with step 1, 2 <220 a total of 10 interviews;

10: While calculating all these match probabilities from number of interviews(with formula =1 callx6-8% probability)is calculated assuming that all students have standard interview skills. Otherwise there has been examples in past when students of yellow zone ( safer zone)with 12-15 calls did not get matched because of interview skills.